Understanding potential trajectories in health and drivers of health is crucial to guiding long-term investments and policy implementation. The Future Health Scenarios (FHS) forecasting team at the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME), led by Professor Stein Emil Vollset, is developing novel approaches to forecast all-cause mortality, causes of death, life expectancy, healthy life expectancy (HALE), incidence, prevalence, years lived with disability (YLDs), DALYs, risk factors and risk factor burden — and alternative future scenarios. The approach provides a robust, flexible forecasting platform from which reference forecasts and alternative health scenarios can be explored in relation to a wide range of independent drivers of health. Results of the first version of the FHS models can be explored via https://vizhub.healthdata.org/gbd-foresight/. The framework has also been used to forecast populations: https://vizhub.healthdata.org/population-forecast/
In this webinar, current status, methods and key results of the Future Health Scenarios forecasting framework will be presented. More information about the webinar is available via https://www.burden-eu.net/activities/webinars/325-webinar-forecasting-the-global-burden-of-disease-study.