COST Action CA18218

[Webinar] Forecasting the Global Burden of Disease Study

Tuesday 29 June 2021, 16h-17h CET

About the webinar

Understanding potential trajectories in health and drivers of health is crucial to guiding long-term investments and policy implementation. The Future Health Scenarios (FHS) forecasting team at the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME), led by Professor Stein Emil Vollset, is developing novel approaches to forecast all-cause mortality, causes of death, life expectancy, healthy life expectancy (HALE), incidence, prevalence, years lived with disability (YLDs), DALYs, risk factors and risk factor burden — and alternative future scenarios. The approach provides a robust, flexible forecasting platform from which reference forecasts and alternative health scenarios can be explored in relation to a wide range of independent drivers of health. Results of the first version of the FHS models can be explored via The framework has also been used to forecast populations:

In this webinar, current status, methods and key results of the Future Health scenarios forecasting framework are presented.


14h00 Welcome & Introduction
— Prof Dr Brecht Devleesschauwer, Action Chair, Sciensano, Belgium
14h05 Forecasting the Global Burden of Disease Study (with Q&A)
— Prof Dr Stein Emil Vollset, Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, USA
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14h50 General discussion


Stein Emil Vollset
Stein Emil Vollset

Prof Dr Stein Emil Vollset is Professor of Health Metrics at the Department of Health Metrics Sciences at the University of Washington School of Medicine. He is leading the Future Health Scenarios forecasting team at the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME).

Prior to IHME, Dr. Vollset was a professor at the University of Bergen, Norway, and he held leadership positions at the Norwegian Institute of Public Health, first as director of the Medical Birth Registry and later as director of the Centre for Disease Burden. He research work has focused on Norwegian and European cohort and health registries data, and more recently burden of disease studies.

Dr. Vollset holds a medical degree from the University of Bergen, Norway, and master and doctoral degrees with specialization in biostatistics from the University of California, Los Angeles School of Public Health.

About COST

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